Denver Broncos Odds to Win AFC West 2026 After 14-3 Season

Last season's top seed in the AFC is 3rd favourite in its division, which is the first thing Denver Broncos betting odds ask you to accept.

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Denver went 14-3, tying the franchise record set in 1998, took the conference's number one seed and won a first division title since 2015.

PowerPlay Sportsbook has them 3.00 to win the AFC West. Kansas City, who went 6-11, are 2.65. The Chargers are 2.80.

They are 20.00 for Super Bowl LXI and 11.00 in the conference, seventh on that board.

Denver scored 401 points and conceded 311, the third fewest in the NFL.

The market has a reason and Sean Payton has said it out loud.

Odds correct at time of publication and subject to change.

11 Wins in One Score Games and Head Coach Knows It

Denver went 11-2 in games decided by one score, tying the NFL record for one score wins in a season.

Payton has not pretended otherwise. "Just go do the analytics, lopsided in your favour one score games," he said, "and then track the next season."

That is a head coach publicly naming the thing his own price is built on, which is unusual.

The record itself was real. Denver beat Buffalo 33-30 in overtime in the divisional round, then lost the AFC Championship game 10-7 at home to New England.

Seven points in a conference final is not a fluke of close game luck. It is a defence that conceded 311 across a season doing exactly what it did all year.

Vance Joseph was retained as defensive coordinator.

Davis Webb was promoted from quarterbacks coach to offensive coordinator and will call the plays, with Payton giving up play calling for the first time in his head coaching career.

Bo Nix Broke His Ankle on the Second to Last Play of the Season

Bo Nix broke his right ankle on the penultimate play of the divisional round win over Buffalo. Jarrett Stidham started the conference final.

Nix had two operations on the same ankle, the repair and then a second procedure to remove bone spurs.

He is now fully cleared, practising with the starters and set to start. "It feels great, it feels normal," he said.

Denver spent heavily to give him more. Jaylen Waddle arrived from Miami on 18 March, with Denver sending the 30th, 94th and 130th picks and receiving Waddle and the 111th.

Waddle caught 64 passes for 910 yards and six touchdowns last season and played alongside Pat Surtain II at Alabama.

The cost was the draft. Denver had no first or second round pick, made only seven selections, and waived three of them at the cutdown.

For only the second time in 23 seasons, no undrafted rookie made the initial 53.

Alex Singleton Led the Club in Tackles and Missed One Game

Alex Singleton resigned on 10 March on a two year deal.

He led Denver with 135 tackles last season and missed a single game, having had surgery for testicular cancer in the middle of it.

He holds Canadian citizenship through his Toronto born mother, took a Canadian passport in 2015, and went sixth overall in the 2016 CFL draft to Calgary.

He was the CFL's Most Outstanding Defensive Player in 2017 and won the Grey Cup in 2018 before returning to the NFL.

That is a more complete Canadian football career than almost anyone in the league can claim, and it sits on a defence that conceded 311 points.

Denver open at Kansas City and have no international fixture this season.

The club has named Burnham Yard, less than a mile from Empower Field, as its preferred site for a privately funded retractable-roof stadium, targeted at 2031.

Odds correct at time of publication and subject to change.

The Number That Decides It

Denver's regular season win line is 9.5, priced 1.85 either side.

That is the only genuine pick'em on the entire board. Every other club in the league has a lean one way or the other.

It is also the clearest possible statement of the disagreement.

A 14-3 top seed has been given a win line four and a half games below what it managed, and the market cannot separate the two sides of it.

Eleven one score wins will not repeat. That much is clear.

The question is what is left underneath when they do not and 311 points conceded is a reasonable answer to start from.