World Cup 2026 Intercontinental Play-Offs: Betting Preview

Update: The World Cup 2026 intercontinental playoffs locked in the final two spots, with DR Congo and Iraq completing the field.

DR Congo came through extra time against Jamaica in a tight final, while Iraq handled Bolivia to seal their place. The 48 team lineup is now set for the USA, Canada, and Mexico. Start winning at PowerPlay Sportsbook.

 

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The Preview

The World Cup 2026 intercontinental play-offs are the last chance for six nations from five confederations to book a spot at the tournament this summer.

Two final berths are up for grabs across two brackets in Mexico, and the stories surrounding these fixtures are unlike anything else in the qualifying window.

Geopolitical crises, doping investigations, eligibility disputes, and potential first-ever World Cup appearances. This is not a standard international window.

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How It Works

Six nations are competing for two World Cup spots. The field is split into Pathway 1 and Pathway 2, each operating as a mini-bracket. The two highest-ranked nations, DR Congo (56th) and Iraq (58th), received byes directly into the finals.

The other four, Jamaica, Bolivia, New Caledonia, and Suriname, must win a semi-final on March 26 before facing those seeded teams in the finals on March 31. Single-leg ties throughout, all played at neutral venues in Mexico. Guadalajara Stadium hosts Pathway 1, Monterrey Stadium hosts Pathway 2.

 

Intercontinental Play-Off Fixtures

 

Pathway 1 Semi-Final: Jamaica vs New Caledonia

Jamaica and New Caledonia have never met before. The fixture in Guadalajara is the first competitive match in history between the two nations, which makes head-to-head data entirely irrelevant.

Jamaica are the higher-ranked side at 70th in the world and arrive with the stronger squad on paper, built heavily around English dual nationals including Ethan Pinnock, Mason Holgate, and Greg Leigh, alongside MLS stalwart Andre Blake in goal.

The absences are significant though. Suspended defenders Ian Fray and Jon Russell are both unavailable. Leon Bailey remains a major doubt with a recurring hamstring issue.

Demarai Gray is confirmed absent after returning to Birmingham City for assessment. That is a lot of attacking and defensive quality missing at once from a side that already failed to qualify automatically from CONCACAF, finishing the final round behind Curacao.

New Caledonia are ranked 149th globally and have never appeared at a World Cup finals. Their squad is largely amateur, though Joseph Athale and Germain Haewegene recently turned professional with Tahiti United. Midfielder Pierre Bako is suspended.

On paper the gap between these sides is wide, but Jamaica's injury situation and their struggles to win away from Kingston throughout qualifying are genuine factors.

 

Pathway 1 Final: DR Congo Await

DR Congo are the highest-ranked team in the tournament at 56th globally and received a direct bye into the Pathway 1 final. They beat Nigeria on penalties in the decisive CAF play-off, 1-1 on aggregate, 4-3 in the shootout, to reach Mexico.

Their AFCON campaign in Morocco provided match sharpness ahead of this window, and the squad carries genuine quality through Chancel Mbemba, Cédric Bakambu, and Meschack Elia. Forward Yoane Wissa is confirmed absent through injury.

Their qualification status carries an asterisk worth noting. Nigeria lodged a formal protest alleging DR Congo fielded up to six ineligible dual nationals of European descent during the CAF play-off, citing Congolese law on dual citizenship.

FIFA are reviewing the complaint. DR Congo remain in the tournament as of now, but this is a story worth monitoring before March 31.

 

Pathway 2 Semi-Final: Bolivia vs Suriname

Bolivia and Suriname have also never played each other. Another first ever meeting, another fixture with no historical data to draw on.

Bolivia arrive in the weakest form of any team in the field: no wins in five matches, nine goals conceded, one scored. Every one of those five matches was played at a neutral or away venue, and Bolivia's famous altitude advantage at Estadio Hernando Siles in La Paz counts for nothing in Monterrey.

Midfielders Ramiro Vaca and Boris Céspedes are under active CONMEBOL doping investigation after testing positive for a substance linked to altitude sickness medication. Their availability for March 26 remains unresolved.

Suriname are ranked 123rd but carry considerably more attacking quality than that number suggests. The federation's decision to open eligibility to Dutch-born players of Surinamese descent has transformed the squad entirely. Sheraldo Becker, Jean-Paul Boëtius, and Tjaronn Chery bring genuine top-flight European experience.

Suriname scored nine goals in their last five qualifiers, beat El Salvador twice, and drew away in Panama. Left back Kenneth Paal is suspended. The Suriname Football Association is also navigating a financial crisis after a court order froze the federation's bank accounts, a situation FIFA are monitoring. On form and squad quality, Suriname look the stronger side.

 

Pathway 2 Final: The Iraq Uncertainty

Iraq earned their seeded place through a dramatic 97th-minute VAR penalty in the second leg against the UAE, winning 3-2 on aggregate. Ranked 58th globally, they received a bye to the Pathway 2 final. But the situation surrounding the Iraqi squad is arguably the defining story of the entire qualifying window.

Regional warfare has resulted in airspace closures over Iraq, stranding roughly half the squad in Baghdad. Head coach Graham Arnold is in Dubai and cannot reach his players. Entry visas for Mexico are unavailable due to embassy closures.

A planned training camp in Houston was cancelled. Iraq's Football Association rejected a FIFA proposal requiring a 25-hour overland journey through conflict zones to Turkey, citing direct safety concerns, and have formally requested that the March 31 final be postponed. FIFA have not yet issued a ruling.

If Iraq cannot field a team on March 31, whoever comes through the Bolivia-Suriname semi-final faces a final in conditions nobody can currently predict. This fixture needs to be monitored closely as the window approaches.

 

The Canadian Angle

Two CONCACAF nations, Jamaica and Suriname, are competing in these play-offs, and both have a direct connection to Canada 2026.

Canada beat Suriname 4-0 on aggregate in the CONCACAF Nations League quarter-finals in November 2024, winning 1-0 in Paramaribo and 3-0 at BMO Field in Toronto. If Suriname qualify through Mexico, they enter the World Cup group draw as a team Canada know well and have beaten comfortably in recent memory.

Jamaica have not been at a World Cup since 1998. The Reggae Boyz beating New Caledonia and then DR Congo would be one of CONCACAF's biggest qualifying results in a generation. For Canadian soccer fans, both outcomes carry real weight heading into a home tournament.

 

What Is at Stake

New Caledonia and Suriname have never appeared at a World Cup. Either qualifying would be historic.

For the others, the absences are measured in decades: Iraq last appeared in 1986, DR Congo in 1974 as Zaire, Bolivia in 1994, Jamaica in 1998. The gaps range from 28 to 52 years. These are not abstract numbers. They represent entire generations of supporters who have never seen their nation at the tournament.

Two spots. Six nations. Mexico, March 26 and 31.